Women's Empowerment in Africa: A Multi-Country Machine-Learning Study with Implications for Nigeria's SDG Progress

Women's empowerment remains central to sustainable development, yet substantial disparities persist across Africa, with Nigeria ranking 99th of 114 countries on the Women's Empowerment Index—far below both global and Sub-Saharan African averages. This study applies machine learning to forecast empowerment trajectories and identify evidence-based pathways for Nigeria's SDG 5 progress. Using the 2022 Women's Empowerment Index dataset covering 114 countries, we integrate K-means clustering for peer group identification with linear regression modeling to quantify determinants of empowerment. Results demonstrate that gender parity indicators explain 70.5% of global variance in empowerment scores (r = 0.839, p < 0.001), establishing gender equality as a high-leverage development strategy. Comparative analysis with African peers—Rwanda, Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa—reveals that constitutional gender quotas, sustained educational investments, and comprehensive reforms significantly accelerate outcomes. Forecasting scenarios indicate Nigeria could improve its empowerment score by 8.7% by 2030, 25.9% by 2035, or 64.6% by 2040 under different policy approaches aligned with peer country achievements. These findings demonstrate that Nigeria's empowerment deficit is policy-responsive rather than structurally predetermined, offering policymakers actionable, time-bound benchmarks for accelerating SDG 5 achievement.