Submitted:
05 January 2024
Posted:
08 January 2024
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Review of evaluation studies on balanced regional development
3. Research methods and data sources
3.1. Construction of the evaluation index system
3.1.1. Construction of the evaluation index system for the population development subsystem
3.1.2. Construction of an evaluation index system for the economic development subsystem
3.1.3. Construction of an evaluation index system for social development subsystems
3.2. Construction of the coupled and coordinated development evaluation model
3.2.1. Determination of weights using the entropy weight method
3.2.2. Modeling the degree of coordination of coupled demographic-economic-social systems
3.3. Study area and data sources

4. Analysis of results
4.1. Index weighting values
4.2. Development indices
4.3. Coordination indices
5. Discussion
5.1. Geographic differences
5.2. The Matthew Effect
5.3. Game thinking
5.4. Differences in industrial structure
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
6.1. Strengthen cross-regional cooperation
6.2. Promote data sharing and interoperability
6.3. Deepen industrial synergistic development
6.4. Foster innovation capacity
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
| 1 | Regional balanced development in this study refers to the balance between regional coordination and regional development. For the purpose of this study, regional balanced development refers to the balance of inter-regional development, and regional coordinated development refers to the coordination of demographic, economic, and social development factors within cities, and the balance of regional development is measured through the development index of urban development and the degree of coupled coordination. |
| 2 | There are various studies on the connotation of social development. In this paper, social development refers to the ecological environment, infrastructure, social security system, scientific and educational development of the whole society, excluding population development and economic development. Essentially, social development is the social attributes of the environment and resources. The study of population-economic-social development system in this paper belongs to the research subfield of population economics. |
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| Target Level | Standardized Layer | Serial Number | Index Layer | Index Properties |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population development subsystem indices | Size of population | A1 | Number of births (persons) | ﹢ |
| A2 | Number of deaths (persons) | - | ||
| A3 | Household population at the end of the year (10,000) | ﹢ | ||
| A4 | Year-end resident population (10,000) | ﹢ | ||
| Quality of population | A5 | Illiteracy and semi-illiteracy (%) | - | |
| A6 | Percentage of people with bachelor's degree or above (%) | ﹢ | ||
| A7 | Percentage of people with high school education or less (%) | - | ||
| Population structure | A8 | Sex ratio at birth | - | |
| A9 | Percentage of 0-14 year olds (%) | ﹢ | ||
| A10 | Percentage of 15-64 year olds (%) | ﹢ | ||
| A11 | Percentage of persons aged 65 and over (%) | ﹢ | ||
| A12 | Population density (persons/km2) | ﹢ | ||
| A13 | Percentage of urban population (%) | ﹢ |
| Target Level | Standardized Layer | Serial Number | Index Layer | Index Properties |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic development subsystem indices | Size of economy | B1 | Year-end gross domestic product GDP (billions of yuan) | ﹢ |
| B2 | General public budget revenue (billions of yuan) | ﹢ | ||
| B3 | Gross industrial output (billions of yuan) | + | ||
| Quality of the economy | B4 | GDP per capita ($) | + | |
| B5 | GDP growth rate (%) | + | ||
| B6 | Per capita local fiscal revenue (million yuan) | + | ||
| B7 | Per capita gross industry output (yuan) | + | ||
| Economic structure | B8 | Share of primary production value (%) | + | |
| B9 | Share of secondary production value (%) | + | ||
| B10 | Share of output value of the third sector (%) | + |
| Target Level | Standardized Layer | Serial Number | Index Layer | Index Properties |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social development subsystem indices | Infrastructure | C1 | Road area per capita (square meters) | + |
| C2 | Public transportation vehicles for 10,000 people (standard units) | + | ||
| C3 | Supply of liquefied petroleum gas per 10,000 people (tons) | + | ||
| C4 | Water supply per capita (tons) | + | ||
| Cultural Education | C5 | Per capita financial expenditure on education (yuan) | + | |
| C6 | Total number of students enrolled in school at all levels (10,000) | + | ||
| C7 | Total number of teachers at all levels (10,000) | + | ||
| C8 | Public library holdings per capita (volumes) | + | ||
| Medical System | C9 | Total number of hospitals, health centers | + | |
| C10 | Number of hospital beds per 10,000 persons (sheets) | + | ||
| C11 | Percentage of persons covered by basic health insurance (%) | + | ||
| C12 | Percentage of employees insured against work-related injuries (%) | + | ||
| C13 | Unemployment insurance participation (%) | + | ||
| Ecological Environment | C14 | Sewage treatment rate (%) | + | |
| C15 | Volume of domestic waste removed (tons) | + | ||
| C16 | Green space per capita in parks (square meters) | + |
| Development Index | [0-0.3) | [0.3-0.4) | [0.4-0.5) | [0.5-0.6) | [0.6-0.7) | [0.7-0.8) | [0.8-1] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level of development | Extremely low | Medium low | Lower | Medium | Higher | Medium high | Extremely high |
| Low | Medium | High | |||||
| Coordination index | Coordination phase | Degree of coordinated development |
|---|---|---|
| [0-0.1) | Disordered type | Extremely disordered |
| [0.1-0.2) | Severely disordered | |
| [0.2-03) | Mildly disordered | |
| [0.3-0.4) | Transition type | Endangered coordination |
| [0.4-0.5) | Fragile coordination | |
| [0.5-0.6) | Barely coordinated | |
| [0.6-0.7) | Basic coordination | |
| [0.7-0.8) | Coordinated development | Intermediate coordination |
| [0.8-0.9) | Well-coordinated | |
| [0.9-1.0] | High-quality coordination |
| Level 1 indices | Secondary indices | Tertiary indices | W2010 | W2015 | W2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population development subsystem indices | Size of population | Number of births (persons) | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| Number of deaths (persons) | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 | ||
| Household population at the end of the year (10,000) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ||
| Year-end resident population (10,000) | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.09 | ||
| Quality of population | Illiteracy and semi-illiteracy (%) | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.06 | |
| Undergraduate education and above (%) | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.06 | ||
| High school education and below (%) | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
| Population Structure | sex ratio at birth | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | |
| Percentage of 0-14-year-olds (%) | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ||
| Percentage of 15-64-year-olds (%) | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.12 | ||
| Percentage of persons aged 65 and over (%) | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.07 | ||
| Population density (persons/km2) | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.11 | ||
| Percentage of urban population (%) | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.11 | ||
| Economic development subsystem indices | Size of economy | Year-end GDP (billions of yuan) | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Public budget revenue (billions of yuan) | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.15 | ||
| Gross industrial output (billions of yuan) | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.12 | ||
| Quality of the economy | GDP per capita ($) | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.08 | |
| GDP growth rate (%) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.07 | ||
| Per capita local fiscal revenue (ten thousand yuan) | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.11 | ||
| Gross industrial output per capita (million yuan) | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.10 | ||
| Economic Structure | Share of primary production value (%) | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.11 | |
| Share of secondary production value (%) | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ||
| Share of output value of the third sector (%) | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.10 | ||
| Social development subsystem indices | Infrastructure | Road area per capita (square meters) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Public transportation vehicles for 10,000 people (standard units) | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 | ||
| Oil and gas supply for 10,000 people (tons) | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.04 | ||
| Water supply per capita (tons) | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.07 | ||
| Cultural Education | Per capita financial expenditure on education (yuan) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | |
| Total number of students in school (10,000) | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
| Total number of teachers at all stages (10,000) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ||
| Public library holdings per capita (volumes) | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.06 | ||
| Medical Protection | Total number of hospitals, health centers (number) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | |
| Number of beds per 10,000 people (beds) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.03 | ||
| Number of people enrolled in basic health insurance (%) | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.06 | ||
| Number of persons insured against work-related injuries (%) | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ||
| Number of participants in unemployment insurance (%) | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||
| Ecological Environment | Sewage treatment rate (%) | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.07 | |
| Volume of domestic waste removed (tons) | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.09 | ||
| Per capita green space in parks (square meters) | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Regions | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | |||||||
| Index | Rankings | Leve | Index | Rankings | Leve | Index | Rankings | Leve | ||
| Southern Jiangsu | Suzhou | 0.71 | 1 | Medium High | 0.77 | 1 | Medium High | 0.76 | 1 | Medium High |
| Nanjing | 0.65 | 2 | Higher | 0.70 | 2 | Medium High | 0.72 | 2 | Medium High | |
| Wuxi | 0.63 | 3 | Higher | 0.60 | 3 | Higher | 0.59 | 3 | Higher | |
| Changzhou | 0.45 | 4 | Lower | 0.45 | 4 | Lower | 0.46 | 4 | Lower | |
| Zhenjiang | 0.36 | 6 | Medium Low | 0.39 | 6 | Medium Low | 0.37 | 6 | Medium Low | |
| Central Jiangsu | Nantong | 0.40 | 5 | Lower | 0.42 | 5 | Lower | 0.40 | 5 | Lower |
| Yangzhou | 0.35 | 7 | Medium Low | 0.34 | 8 | Medium Low | 0.33 | 8 | Medium Low | |
| Taizhou | 0.29 | 9 | Extremely Low | 0.28 | 10 | Extremely Low | 0.30 | 9 | Medium Low | |
| Northern Jiangsu | Xuzhou | 0.33 | 8 | Medium Low | 0.36 | 7 | Medium Low | 0.32 | 7 | Medium Low |
| Yancheng | 0.26 | 10 | Extremely Low | 0.29 | 9 | Extremely Low | 0.27 | 10 | Extremely Low | |
| Huai'an | 0.24 | 11 | Extremely Low | 0.28 | 11 | Extremely Low | 0.25 | 11 | Extremely Low | |
| Lianyungang | 0.22 | 12 | Extremely Low | 0.24 | 12 | Extremely Low | 0.23 | 12 | Extremely Low | |
| Suqian | 0.21 | 13 | Extremely Low | 0.23 | 13 | Extremely Low | 0.22 | 13 | Extremely Low | |
| Regions | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | |||||||
| Value | Level | Rankings | Value | Level | Rankings | Value | Level | Rankings | ||
| Southern Jiangsu | Suzhou | 0.84 | Well | 1 | 0.87 | Well | 1 | 0.87 | Well | 1 |
| Nanjing | 0.79 | Intermediate | 2 | 0.83 | Well | 2 | 0.85 | Well | 2 | |
| Wuxi | 0.79 | Intermediate | 3 | 0.77 | Intermediate | 3 | 0.77 | Intermediate | 3 | |
| Changzhou | 0.67 | Basic | 4 | 0.67 | Basic | 4 | 0.67 | Basic | 4 | |
| Zhenjiang | 0.60 | Basic | 6 | 0.62 | Basic | 6 | 0.60 | Basic | 6 | |
| Central Jiangsu | Nantong | 0.63 | Basic | 5 | 0.65 | Basic | 5 | 0.63 | Basic | 5 |
| Yangzhou | 0.59 | Barely | 7 | 0.58 | Barely | 8 | 0.57 | Barely | 7 | |
| Taizhou | 0.53 | Barely | 9 | 0.53 | Barely | 10 | 0.55 | Barely | 8 | |
| Northern Jiangsu | Xuzhou | 0.57 | Barely | 8 | 0.60 | Basic | 7 | 0.55 | Barely | 9 |
| Yancheng | 0.49 | Fragile | 10 | 0.54 | Barely | 9 | 0.51 | Barely | 10 | |
| Huai’an | 0.48 | Fragile | 11 | 0.52 | Barely | 11 | 0.49 | Fragile | 11 | |
| Lianyungang | 0.45 | Fragile | 12 | 0.48 | Fragile | 12 | 0.47 | Fragile | 12 | |
| Suqian | 0.45 | Fragile | 13 | 0.48 | Fragile | 13 | 0.46 | Fragile | 13 | |
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