Initial Indications of Climate Influence on Abies cephalonica L. in Mount Parnassus: Insights from Autoregressive Models

Climate fluctuations are expected to drive a decline in the growth of many conifer and broadleaf species, especially in the Mediterranean region, where these species grow at or very near the southern limits of their distribution. Such trends have important im-plications not only for forest productivity but also for plant diversity, as shifts in spe-cies performance may alter competitive interactions and long-term community com-position. Using tree-ring data sourced from two Abies cephalonica stands with different elevation in Mount Parnassus in Central Greece, we evaluate the growth responses of the species to climatic variability employing a dendroecological approach. We hy-pothesize that radial growth at higher elevations is more strongly influenced by cli-mate variability than at lower elevations. Despite the moderate to relatively good common signal indicated by the expressed population signal (EPS: 0.645 for the high-altitude stand and 0.782 for the low-altitude stand), the chronologies for both sites preserve crucial stand-level growth patterns, providing an important basis for ecological insights. The calculation of the Average Tree-Ring Width Index (ARWI) for both sites revealed that fir in both altitudes exhibited a decline in growth rates from the late 1980s to the early 1990s, followed by a general recovery and increase throughout the late 1990s. They also both experienced a significant decline in growth between approximately 2018 and 2022. The best-fit model for annual ring-width vari-ation at lower elevations was a simple autoregressive model of order one (AR1), where growth was driven exclusively by the previous year’s growth (p < 0.001). At the higher elevation, a more complex model emerged: while previous year’s growth remained significant (p < 0.001), other variables such as maximum growing season temperature (p = 0.041), annual temperature (inverse effect, p = 0.039), annual precipitation (p = 0.017), and evapotranspiration (p = 0.039) also had a statistically significant impact on tree growth. Our results emphasize the prominent role of carry-over effects in shaping their annual growth patterns.