AI-Based Causal Reasoning over Knowledge Graphs for Data-Driven and Intervention-Oriented Enterprise Performance Analysis

This paper addresses the challenges in traditional enterprise performance analysis, including complex multi-source data structures, ambiguous indicator correlations, and poor decision interpretability. It proposes an enterprise performance optimization decision model that integrates knowledge graphs with causal inference. The model constructs a multi-entity and multi-relation knowledge graph to semantically integrate heterogeneous information from financial, market, and operational dimensions, enabling high-level representation of structured relationships among enterprise features. It further incorporates causal structure learning and inference mechanisms to identify key performance drivers and estimate intervention effects, revealing the true causal pathways among variables. In the optimization layer, the model combines knowledge representation with causal relationships to establish an interpretable decision objective function, ensuring that predictions possess both numerical accuracy and causal consistency with logical traceability. Experiments conducted on public enterprise datasets demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms mainstream deep learning and sequence modeling approaches in terms of error control and generalization performance, showing higher robustness and stability. Sensitivity analysis further confirms that the model maintains strong adaptability and consistent performance under different embedding dimensions, noise levels, and optimization strategies. This study provides a novel methodological framework and theoretical foundation for building interpretable and intervention-oriented intelligent decision systems, offering significant implications for data-driven performance evaluation and decision optimization.