Asymmetric Network Centrality, Monetary Hierarchies, and Hegemonic Persistence: A Structural Theory of US Dollar Weaponization in Sino–American Strategic Competition

This paper proposes a structural theory of monetary hegemony, drawing on network analysis, institutional political economy, and international relations to account for the enduring dominance of the US dollar despite escalating Sino–American rivalry. I contend that the dollar’s supremacy rests less on raw economic output or military strength than on three interlocking mechanisms: first, an asymmetric centrality within global payment and information architectures; second, a hierarchical position in a tiered monetary system defined by unequal capacities for liquidity creation and safe asset provision; and third, deep-seated institutional lock-in effects that impose prohibitive exit costs on would-be challengers.Crucially, the argument posits that the weaponization of finance is not merely a discretionary policy tool but an emergent feature of network topology. Consequently, China’s efforts to internationalize the renminbi face structural hurdles embedded in correspondent banking, messaging systems, and capital markets—barriers that mere economic expansion or bilateral swap lines cannot easily dismantle.By treating monetary hierarchies as both coordination mechanisms and instruments of geopolitical power, this analysis highlights the self-reinforcing dynamics that insulate incumbent currencies. This structural framework improves upon conventional hegemonic stability theory by showing how the financial architecture itself, rather than just the hegemon’s choices, generates coercive leverage and asymmetric vulnerability. The findings suggest that because power is micro-founded in these network structures, de-dollarization is unlikely to occur through a sudden rupture, but will instead be a slow, fragmented process where economic rise does not automatically translate into monetary influence.